Upticks: Rate Rumble, Ozempic’s Price Plunge, & Retail Rift: What It Means for Your Money
By Luke Sullivan on August 28, 2025
Fed tensions, Ozempic’s price drop, and Target’s retail shakeup—what do they mean for your money? Jake and Cory unpack the latest headlines, including the U.S. credit rating outlook, Google’s AI-powered Pixel 10, and the CME–FanDuel betting partnership. Discover how these shifts could impact your financial plan.
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Read an overview of the conversation below
Rate Rumble
The Federal Reserve voted to hold interest rates steady, despite dissent from two governors who favored cuts—marking the first multi-governor opposition in over 30 years. The meeting minutes revealed a split among participants over whether inflation or employment posed the greater risk. Added uncertainty stemmed from recent tariffs and political pressure from President Trump, complicating the Fed’s path forward.
Jake and Cory opened the episode by highlighting the significance of this rare dissent. Cory believes rate cuts are likely, citing bond market signals and the Fed’s own messaging. “The bond market has said that interest rates on the short end should come down a little bit,” Cory explained, adding that the two-year yield is a respected indicator. Jake emphasized the importance of preparing portfolios for potential rate changes, particularly by reviewing cash positions and bond ladders.
They also clarified a common misconception: Fed rate cuts don’t directly lower mortgage rates. “The Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates. The bond market does,” Cory said. Jake added, “I don’t want people out there looking to buy a home thinking that mortgage rates will be cheaper after the next Fed meeting, because that might not be the case.”
Source: Cox, Jeff. “Divided Fed worried about tariffs, inflation and the labor market, minutes show.” CNBC, 20 August 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/fed-minutes-august-2025.html. Accessed August 20, 2025.
S&P Credit Rating: Stable but Strained
S&P Global reaffirmed its “AA+” credit rating on the U.S., citing tariff revenue as a buffer against the fiscal impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Despite a $21 billion surge in customs duty collections, the July budget deficit rose nearly 20% to $291 billion. S&P warned of a potential downgrade if deficits continue to climb or institutional strength weakens.
Jake expressed skepticism about the reliability of credit ratings, referencing past failures during the financial crisis. “Lehman Brothers was double A rated on a Friday and out of business on Sunday,” he said. Cory, however, urged caution, noting that “just because of what happened prior to the financial crisis doesn’t mean we should ignore the fact that the credit rating agencies are saying there could be threats.”
Both agreed that while the rating itself may not move markets, the underlying fiscal trajectory is worth watching. “It’s hard to have a better credit rating than the government when they print the money,” Jake said. Cory added, “The path that we’re on fiscally is unsustainable… someday it’s going to matter.”
Source: “S&P affirms ‘AA+’ credit rating for US, cites impact of tariff revenue.” Reuters, 19 August 2025, https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-affirms-aa-credit-rating-us-cites-impact-tariff-revenue-2025-08-19/. Accessed August 20, 2025.
Ozempic’s Price Plunge
Novo Nordisk announced it will offer Ozempic to cash-paying U.S. patients for $499 per month—less than half its list price—via its website, patient assistance programs, and GoodRx. The move follows political pressure, including a July letter from President Trump, and aims to expand access while steering patients away from compounded alternatives amid limited insurance coverage.
Jake and Cory discussed the financial planning implications of this price cut. They emphasized that while they’re not offering medical advice, clients considering Ozempic should consult their doctors and explore budgeting options like HSAs. “If your doctor thinks this is a good idea… you can discuss budgeting frameworks,” Jake said. Cory agreed, noting that simplification and affordability are positives for patients.
They also touched on the business strategy behind the price cut. “I don’t think the fact that they’re changing the pricing means that the stock thesis is broken,” Cory said. Jake added, “Maybe it’s a volume play… the $499 isn’t just a discount, it’s a strategy to get it in more people’s hands.”
Source: Kim Constantino, Annika. “Novo Nordisk offers diabetes drug Ozempic for less than half the price for cash-paying U.S. patients.” CNBC, 18 August 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/novo-nordisk-offers-diabetes-drug-ozempic-for-steep-cash-discount.html. Accessed August 18, 2025.
Retail Rift: Target’s Strategic Shakeup
Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and sales expectations and reaffirmed its outlook, even as store traffic declined. The company named longtime executive Michael Fiddelke as its next CEO, effective February 2026. Additionally, Target and Ulta Beauty announced they will end their shop-in-shop partnership in August 2026, concluding a collaboration that spanned over 600 stores.
Jake and Cory explored whether this signals trouble or transformation. They concluded that Target’s moves reflect strategic refocusing rather than distress. “Just because they’re kicking Ulta out of their store doesn’t mean that we’re going into a recession,” Jake said. Cory added that operational and staffing challenges likely drove the decision, saying, “Sometimes these partnerships between companies work and sometimes they don’t.”
They emphasized that retail pivots like this don’t necessarily signal economic trouble. “It’s just a strategic refocus. That’s all that is,” Jake said. Cory added, “If you find yourself in a hole, the best thing you can do is stop digging… it’s a redirection.”
Source: Repko, Melissa. “Ulta and Target will end deal for in-store beauty shops next year.” CNBC, 14 August 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/14/ulta-and-target-end-deal-for-in-store-shops.html. Accessed August 18, 2025.
Innovation Watch: CME and FanDuel Blur the Lines
CME Group and FanDuel announced a partnership to launch $1 event contracts on financial metrics like CPI prints, interest rate changes, and oil prices. This initiative blends prediction markets with mainstream betting platforms, raising questions about the gamification of finance.
Jake and Cory had a spirited debate. Jake sees this as a way to separate speculation from serious investing, potentially steering gamblers away from misusing retirement accounts. “I want the gamblers gambling on FanDuel. I don’t want them gambling in the stock market,” he said. Cory, however, fears it could normalize gambling behavior and distort how people engage with financial markets, warning that “people are going to encounter finance for the first time through the same dopamine loops as sports betting.”
Despite their disagreement, both acknowledged the importance of education. Jake believes this could help delineate investing from gambling, saying, “It’s going to separate the investors from the gamblers, and I think that is good.” Cory remains skeptical but open to being proven wrong.
Source: FanDuel.com | As of: 8/20/2025
Pixel Powers Up
Google unveiled its Pixel 10 smartphone lineup, featuring its Gemini AI assistant as a key differentiator. Tools like Magic Cue and Camera Coach aim to enhance real-time interactions and productivity. With Apple’s Siri upgrades delayed, Google is positioning Pixel as a leader in AI-powered devices.
Jake and Cory discussed the broader implications of AI in consumer tech and financial services. They encouraged listeners to embrace tools like Copilot and ChatGPT, noting that AI is still in its early stages. “I think that AI is still in the very much the wild wild west,” Jake said. Cory added, “Learning about these tools and learning how to use them well is actually something that’s wise for everyone.”
While not offering investment advice, they suggested that companies integrating AI effectively may benefit long-term. “We prefer to invest in companies that will benefit from new technology,” Jake said, emphasizing the importance of understanding how AI fits into broader business strategies.
Source: Elias, Jennifer and Leswig, Kif. “Google announces its AI-powered Pixel 10 smartphone series.” CNBC, 20 August 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/google-pixel-10-gemini-ai.html. Accessed August 20, 2025.
Thank you for tuning in, we hope you have a great week!
