Upticks: Fed Cuts Rates Again—What Could Be Next for Your Money?
By Luke Sullivan on September 26, 2025
Explore the latest financial headlines with Jake and Cory as they break down Fed rate cuts, a mortgage refinancing boom, resilient retail sales, TikTok’s uncertain future, Apple’s U.S. manufacturing push, and a major shift in corporate reporting. What could these changes mean for your financial plan?
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Read an overview of the conversation below
Fed Signals Further Easing
The Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point interest rate cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4%-4.25%. Officials signaled two more cuts are likely this year, citing concerns over slowing job growth and persistent inflation. The decision saw less dissent than expected, but political tensions and questions about Fed independence are mounting.
Jake and Cory broke down why this could matter for investors. Cory explained, “Borrowing costs are coming down… which can be helpful as far as mortgages go… but the Fed is telling us they see some weakness, right? That’s why they’re lowering rates.” Jake added that lower rates mean lower yields on cash and bonds, so “this is a green light to consider selective risk taking,” though he cautioned listeners to watch inflation data closely: “If inflation starts getting worse… they won’t cut rates. They may raise rates.”
They emphasized the importance of laddering maturities in fixed income portfolios to manage reinvestment risk. Jake noted, “If you have a lot of cash sitting in a savings account or money market account, the interest rate you earn… is going to move lower.” Cory summed up: “If you’ve been waiting for interest rates to move lower, that has begun. It’s a great time to revisit your plan.”
Cox, Jeff. “Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year.” CNBC, 17 September 2025.
Mortgage Refinancing Hits High
Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since October 2024, sparking a 58% surge in refinance applications. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) rose to 12.9% of total activity—the highest since 2008—while the average refinance loan size hit a 35-year high. Despite economic uncertainty, homeowners are seizing the opportunity to lock in savings.
Jake called this “a big deal for homeowners looking to lock in savings,” especially for high-net-worth investors and retirees considering downsizing. He clarified that “just because the Fed lowers rates doesn’t mean mortgage rates will follow,” since mortgage rates are more tied to the 10-year yield. Jake told listeners to do a breakeven analysis before refinancing: “You need to figure out… how long it’s going to take you to pay back those fees.” Cory added, “People are refinancing so they’ve got more breathing room as far as cash flow and budgeting goes,” but warned about the risks of ARMs: “Don’t try to get too cute… there’s risk involved.”
Both hosts agreed that ARMs aren’t for everyone. Jake said, “It’s not for somebody that’s passive, not for somebody that’s risk averse, and not for somebody on a fixed income.” Cory concluded, “If you can take advantage of this and it fits in your plan, that’s great. But don’t expect rates to drop in perpetuity.”
Olick, Diana. “Mortgage refinance demand spikes nearly 60%, as interest rates drop sharply.” CNBC, 17 September 2025.
August Retail Sales Surge
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August—triple economists’ expectations—driven by strong online and apparel purchases. Consumer spending remains resilient, even as hiring slows and tariffs begin to impact prices. Economists suggest the strength is concentrated among higher-income households, with low-income consumers feeling pressure.
Jake and Cory discussed how this surge reflects consumer resilience, especially among wealthier households. Jake observed, “Consumer spending drives the economy, and the resilience suggests that wealthier households are still spending even though the unemployment number has ticked up.” Cory noted, “The reality is uneven… higher income households have the money to spend, but lower income households are feeling the squeeze.” He suggested clients not to get distracted by headline data: “Build your plan so you’re on the stronger side of that divide.”
The conversation turned philosophical as Jake questioned why high earners are sometimes criticized, given their role in supporting the economy and paying more taxes. Cory responded, “It just boils down to a difference of opinion… but the facts are, we know what’s actually driving things.” Both hosts encouraged listeners to focus on empowerment and opportunity, with Jake concluding, “There should be no shame in being successful.”
Mena, Bryan. “Against the odds, Americans are still spending.” CNN, 16 September 2025.
TikTok’s Future in Flux
A framework agreement for TikTok is expected to close within 30 to 45 days, involving new and existing ByteDance investors. The deal follows a congressional mandate requiring ByteDance to divest from TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a ban. Oracle will retain its cloud partnership, but the final structure remains confidential and relatively small in scale.
Jake and Cory highlighted the investment risks tied to tech regulation. Jake said, “Regulations on these huge social media stocks… is going to change and it frankly needs to change.” He warned against going “all in on something that faces political risk,” calling this “headline risk.” Cory described the situation as “a tech Cold War,” reflecting broader trends of deglobalization and supply chain control. He added, “Companies that control their own data are going to thrive… this is a move towards building resilience.”
Both hosts agreed that diversification is key. Jake concluded, “You want to have a diversified portfolio and not get caught up in the hype of whatever the new shiny thing is.”
Capoot, Ashley. “TikTok deal to include new investors with ByteDance; Oracle to keep cloud agreement, sources say.” CNBC, 15 September 2025.
Apple’s Manufacturing Momentum
Apple CEO Tim Cook announced a $600 billion investment to expand domestic manufacturing, benefiting 79 U.S. factories over four years. The initiative includes a new Manufacturing Academy in Detroit and partnerships with firms like Corning, signaling a long-term commitment to American industry.
Jake called this “a major vote of confidence in American industry,” predicting it could create jobs and reshape supply chains. “Apple’s playing the long game here… it’s not just about iPhones. It’s about building infrastructure, education, and economic leadership.” Cory agreed, “Apple is planting a flag… they know the geopolitical tide right now: build at home, own your supply chain, de-risk from China.” Both hosts saw the move as bullish for U.S. industry, with Cory concluding, “Apple is loudly and clearly adapting right now. And I do think it’s a positive for America.”
Coleman, Julie. “Tim Cook says Apple’s manufacturing expansion across the U.S. will create a ‘domino effect’.” CNBC, 15 September 2025.
Trump Targets Quarterly Reports
President Trump proposed shifting corporate earnings reporting from quarterly to semiannual, arguing it would reduce costs and allow leaders to focus on long-term strategy. Critics warn it could reduce transparency and hinder investor decision-making. The change would require SEC approval, where a Republican majority could accelerate the process.
Cory noted, “If this does happen, market volatility could rise around fewer data points… but it could ultimately benefit long-term investors.” Jake took a firmer stance: “I think making it semiannual… will make it more volatile and make those numbers have more weight. I think more data points are better than less data points.” Both agreed that transparency is crucial, with Jake concluding, “I think that would be a bad decision if it comes into fruition, but we’ll see what happens.”
Cox, Jeff. “Trump advocates end to quarterly earnings reports.” CNBC, 15 September 2025.
Thank you for tuning in, we hope you have a great week!
